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May USDA Reports Key to Crop Forecast



AFBF Staff

photo credit: Nebraska Farm Bureau member Zach Hunnicutt

The Weekly Crop Progress Report and the upcoming WASDE report from USDA are key to the crop forecast this year. Micheal Clements tells us growing conditions may improve for many parts of the United States.

Clements: Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report from the Department of Agriculture will set the tone for the 2023 growing season. Bernt Nelson, AFBF Economist, says the most recent Crop Progress reports from USDA points to positive news.
Nelson: What we're looking at now at planting progress, we're seeing actually a lot of states ahead of schedule. We see a lot of percentages that are running five to ten percent ahead of the five-year average. The only one really lagging behind would be North Dakota. They saw a lot of cold temperatures, late snowfall that led to a lot of wet soil conditions and rain is continuing.
Clements: While several farmers are dealing with drought, Nelson says the weather pattern should transition this year.
Nelson: We've been in a triple dip back-to-back-to-back years of El Niña. Now that typically brings the United States drier conditions. The likelihood of an El Niño event occurring has increased, which favors wetter conditions, meaning less likely to be in a drought scenario for the upcoming growing season.
Clements: He says markets leading into Friday’s WASDE report reflect the weather forecast.
Nelson: If we see these conditions and rain forecast continue to show up, this is favorable for a good growing season. If we have a good growing season, we may see some of the supplies with corn and soybeans create a larger crop. So, it's expected to show ending stocks just towards the top of two billion bushels. Now this is not a really big surprise, and Graham boards have responded accordingly.
Clements: Micheal Clements, Washington.