Prompted by concerns about dwindling interest in running for local office, Kansas Farm Bureau launched Engaged Kansas in February 2023. This nonpartisan and non-policy-specific initiative brings together leading Kansas nonprofits and other organizations to encourage and support civic-minded individuals to consider public service.

Local leaders are incredibly influential in rural communities in Kansas because they make key decisions about many of the things that impact a rural community’s ability to thrive and provide necessary off-farm employment for farmers and ranchers. According to USDA, more than 50% of farmers’ household incomes come from off-farm employment, which provides income to keep farms in business and often provides health insurance.

Despite the importance of these local elected positions, there often aren’t enough thoughtful, intentional people willing to step into them.

Overcoming Barriers to Entry

When asking Kansas Farm Bureau members and community leaders if they would consider running for public office, the two most common responses were related to:

• not understanding the roles and responsibilities of public offices; and
• not knowing how to run a successful campaign.

Kansas Farm Bureau then launched an educational campaign to increase the understanding of roles, responsibilities and expectations of public office, as well as to provide neutral and independent resources to improve the campaign and leadership skillsets of Kansans interested in elected office.

Expanding With Partners

Once Kansas Farm Bureau finalized its goals, they invited other organizations with a vested interest in helping Kansas communities thrive by finding the right people for leadership positions to support Engaged Kansas. That support comes in the form of publicly available resources, educational opportunities and using their respective networks to promote Engaged Kansas.

Partners include Kansas Association of Counties, Kansas Association of School Boards, Kansas Chamber of Commerce, Kansas Bankers Association, Kansas Medical Society and Kansas Association of Realtors, among others.

Getting the Word Out

Along with sharing Engaged Kansas’ resources through their partners’ networks, Engaged Kansas has a website and utilizes Facebook, X and LinkedIn. Kansas Farm Bureau shared the initiatives and resources with their members via their newsletter for voting members, e-newsletter and their social media platforms.

Engaged Kansas also targets communications to all state legislators, political party leaders, community Chamber directors, commodity group leaders and candidates for elected office

Strong Interest

Kansas Farm Bureau staff has delivered Engaged Kansas presentations to more than 3,000 people in more than 75 Farm Bureau, commodity and community organizations — and the requests continue to come in.

Back to School – Campaign School

One of Engaged Kansas’ offerings is a two-day Campaign School, using the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) Campaign School curriculum. The AFBF Campaign School’s proven and empowering tactics have been a vital asset to the coalition, gaining broad acceptance and continued growth, both inside and outside of typical Kansas Farm Bureau networks.

When a shorter campaign school program was requested, AFBF and Kansas Farm Bureau built a four-hour mini session, which Kansas Farm Bureau staff deliver. The mini session provides a brief but thorough resource to those interested in seeking elected office and offers a preview of the two-day campaign school.

Kansas Farm Bureau staff has delivered mini sessions to more than 175 Kansans interested in a wide range of offices.

A Collegiate Campaign workshop on the Kansas State University campus was developed and presented as well for on- and off-campus organization leaders. Others continue to be planned, offering encouragement and support to young potential elected leaders.

State Awards of Excellence

Engaged Kansas earned Kansas Farm Bureau a 2026 Award of Excellence in the Coalitions & Partnerships category. The award was presented at the 2026 American Farm Bureau Convention in January in Anaheim.

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Several years of high inflation and low commodity prices, coupled with volatile production costs, are continuing to squeeze farmers financially. These forces are projected to hit farmers with $32 billion in losses for the major row crops in 2027 after a projected loss of $31 billion in 2026. Fruit, vegetable, nut and other specialty crop farmers faced billions of dollars in losses in 2025, with difficult market conditions continuing throughout 2026. American Farm Bureau Federation economists analyzed the losses felt across the farm economy in the latest Farm Bureau Intel.

The Farm Bureau Intel states, “Corn losses are projected to increase from $131 per acre in 2026 to $167 per acre in 2027. Soybean losses are projected to increase from $80 per acre to $138 per acre, wheat losses from $114 per acre to $145 per acre and cotton losses from $342 per acre to $406 per acre. Rice, sorghum, oats, barley and peanuts are also projected to remain below breakeven.”

Specialty crop producers are facing many of the same cost and market pressures. The Farm Bureau Intel outlines six representative specialty crops - almonds, apples, blueberries, lettuce, potatoes and strawberries - with “over $7 billion in estimated 2025 economic losses as labor, input, compliance and capital costs outpaced farm-level returns. Available 2026 market data show that conditions for specialty crop producers have not broadly improved.” These crops account for only about one-quarter of specialty crop receipts.

AFBF President Zippy Duvall also sent a letter to congressional leaders today in support of market relief. Cumulative uncovered losses across the farm economy exceed $12 billion and are being felt across many sectors of agriculture. He wrote, “Farms support rural communities as well as the jobs that keep those communities strong. Every farm lost takes with it generations of knowledge, community leadership, and the heartbeat of local economies. As those farms disappear, America’s food security is put at greater risk.”

Longer-term policy solutions are also needed to strengthen the farm economy beyond immediate assistance. A new, modernized farm bill, protecting interstate commerce, risk management coverage for specialty crop farmers and policies like year-round E15 can help improve demand and reduce the risk of more farm closures.

Read the letter to Congress here.

Read the full Farm Bureau Intel here.

To subscribe to Farm Bureau Intel, click here.

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Key Takeaways

• Global instability is pushing production costs higher. Fertilizer and fuel costs were already elevated heading into 2026, and the conflict with Iran has added further pressure to those markets.
• AFBF analysis shows losses are expected to deepen in 2027. AFBF estimates that without federal assistance, farmers growing nine principal crops will lose $32 billion (national average returns over total costs) in 2027, compared to $31 billion in 2026. On a per-acre basis, every crop analyzed is projected to remain below breakeven in 2027.
• Fruit, vegetable, nut and other specialty crop losses remain largely uncovered. AFBF estimates farmers growing six representative crops faced more than $7 billion in 2025 losses. The ASCF program provides welcome relief, but payment rates cover only about 5% to 28% of estimated 2025 per-acre losses for the crops analyzed. Available 2026 data show difficult market conditions continue, including below-breakeven prices, acreage reductions and weak margins across major specialty crop sectors.
• Additional economic assistance is needed and is supported on a bipartisan basis. Additional financial support is critical to offset trade-related losses, rising input costs and the deep financial pressure facing U.S. row crop, specialty crop, hay and sugar producers. This support would help stabilize the farm economy, sustain rural communities and maintain a strong domestic food supply.
• Longer term, policy solutions to help stabilize the farm economy are needed. Such as year-round E15; a modernized five-year farm bill that protects interstate commerce from a patchwork of state legislation; a legislative fix to agricultural labor; and stronger risk management tools, including better data collection and publication to support more effective options for specialty crop producers.

Crop farmers continue to face elevated production costs, lower commodity prices and tight margins – with no relief on the horizon. AFBF analysis projects 2027 will mark a sixth year of negative returns over total costs for most major row crops. Specialty crop farmers are experiencing similar financial strain, facing expected below-breakeven prices and acreage reductions across major fruit, vegetable and tree nut sectors in 2026, even as limited public data make the full scale of losses difficult to measure. At the same time, fertilizer and fuel prices remain volatile, with the Iran conflict adding additional pressure to those markets.

Row Crops

USDA’s June 30 Acreage report provides an updated acreage baseline for estimating the scale of economic losses across major row crops. Total U.S. principal crop acres are estimated to be down 1.91 million acres from 2025, a 0.6% decline overall. Corn planted area is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3% from last year but still the fourth-highest planted corn acreage in the U.S. since 1944. Soybean planted acreage is estimated at 85.4 million acres, up 5% from 2025, while all wheat planted area is estimated at 42.7 million acres, down 6% from last year.

Using USDA-Economic Research Service cost of production data, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates data, USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service acreage data and Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute projections, AFBF estimates national average returns over total costs, without federal assistance, at a $32 billion loss across nine principal crops in 2027, deepening from a $31 billion loss in 2026. These 2026 and 2027 figures represent projected, not realized, losses. Producers still have time to adjust acreage and input decisions, while weather, yields, market prices and other factors could change the final outcome. The 2027 estimate assumes crop prices remain at 2026 levels, though actual prices will vary in response to changing market conditions

On a per-acre basis, losses are projected across every major crop analyzed. Corn losses are projected to increase from $131 per acre in 2026 to $167 per acre in 2027. Soybean losses are projected to increase from $80 per acre to $138 per acre, wheat losses from $114 per acre to $145 per acre and cotton losses from $342 per acre to $406 per acre. Rice, sorghum, oats, barley and peanuts are also projected to remain below breakeven.

In total dollar terms, corn accounts for the largest projected loss at $15.8 billion, followed by soybeans at $11.6 billion, wheat at $6.6 billion and cotton at $3.8 billion. Combined, losses across the nine principal crops are projected to reach $41.4 billion in 2027.

Specialty Crops

Specialty crop producers face many of the same cost and market pressures, but the full scale of losses is more difficult to quantify because consistent, timely public data on production costs and prices received by farmers is lacking for many crops. This data gap should not be mistaken for a lack of hardship. AFBF’s earlier analysis of almonds, apples, blueberries, lettuce, potatoes and strawberries, six crops representing roughly one-quarter of specialty crop receipts, identified over $7 billion in estimated 2025 economic losses as labor, input, compliance and capital costs outpaced farm-level returns.

Available 2026 market data show that conditions for specialty crop producers have not broadly improved. For example, potato growers planted 873,000 acres in 2026, down 3% from 2025 and the lowest level since 1952. AFBF’s earlier analysis estimated a 2025 weighted open-market potato price of $6.88 per hundredweight, already well below average full production costs of $12.25. In early 2026, analysts reported some uncontracted potatoes selling for just $2 to $3 per hundredweight and continued to describe the market as unprofitable. Other specialty crop markets show a similar lack of recovery. In June, agricultural analysts continued to rate both apple and wine grape producers as unprofitable.

Although some specialty crop prices have strengthened, those gains have been limited. Almond prices strengthened in May as the projected 2026 crop fell below the five-year average, partly after growers removed acreage or reduced production activities in response to several years of weak margins. California strawberry prices also increased after weather reduced available volume. In both cases, stronger prices were tied at least partly to tighter supplies, while labor, fertilizer, energy, compliance and capital costs remained elevated. When higher prices result from weather-related production losses or acreage removals, growers also have less product to sell, limiting any improvement in farm-level revenue and leaving overall margins under pressure.

Recent economic conditions also point to a shrinking domestic specialty crop footprint. Since 2000, U.S. vegetable acreage has declined 41%, while production has fallen 24%, from 37 million metric tons to 28 million in 2024. Fruit acreage, including citrus, has declined 37%, while production has fallen 48%, from 51 million metric tons to 26 million. Tree nut production strengthened during years of stronger markets, peaking at 3.7 million metric tons in 2020, but had fallen to 3.2 million by 2024. These declines reflect the cumulative effects of weak market returns, rising labor costs, import competition, weather, disease, and water constraints. Although they do not provide a direct measure of producer losses, they show how sustained financial and production pressures are shrinking domestic specialty crop capacity.

Why More Economic Assistance is Needed

Congress and the administration have already taken important steps to respond to these economic headwinds. In late 2024, Congress passed the American Relief Act, which included $10 billion in aid for row crop farmers through the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) to address economic losses from the 2023 and 2024 crop years. The Farmer Bridge Assistance Program provided $11 billion in short-term economic relief to row crop farmers, while USDA initially reserved another $1 billion for specialty crop and sugar assistance for losses felt in 2025. USDA later finalized $1.625 billion specifically for eligible fruit, vegetable and tree nut growers through the Assistance for Specialty Crop Farmers (ASCF) Program, an increase from the amount originally set aside, with sugar assistance addressed separately. Together, these programs provided more than $23 billion in economic assistance.

Through H.R. 1, Congress also made several significant longer-term improvements to commodity programs and the farm safety net. Higher reference prices, expanded crop insurance options and other provisions will provide meaningful support as they are implemented, with the first Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments expected in October 2026.

Since the enactment of H.R. 1, fertilizer, fuel and other production costs have continued to rise, while prices for many major commodities have remained flat or declined. As a result, row crop, specialty crop and alfalfa farmers are entering the fall under intense financial strain. Some sectors of agriculture are projected to face a seventh consecutive year of losses in 2027, leaving cumulative shortfalls that remain well beyond the support provided to date.

The scale and persistence of those losses have drawn bipartisan backing from President Trump and leaders of both parties on the House and Senate Agriculture committees. In late June, the president requested more than $11 billion in additional agricultural assistance from Congress. The proposal would provide $10 billion for row and specialty crop producers with crops planted in 2026, with another $1.1 billion directed to Florida producers affected by winter storms. The proposal also urges Congress to pass year-round E15. Congressional work to assemble this supplemental package and determine program details are still needed. The final package must be sufficiently robust and broadly structured to reflect the depth of losses across agriculture.

Economic Support Needed Now

Multiple years of high input costs, declining crop prices, trade uncertainty, global energy volatility and negative margins have weakened farm balance sheets and reduced working capital. Without additional support, more farmers will face difficult decisions about whether they can continue operating into the next crop year.

Near-term economic assistance is needed to help farm families offset trade-related losses and increased input costs intensified by geopolitical conflict.

Longer-term policy solutions are also needed to strengthen the farm economy beyond immediate assistance. Swift implementation of farm bill improvements; protecting interstate commerce from a patchwork of state laws; stronger risk management tools, including better data collection and publication to support more effective options for specialty crop producers; and domestic market-expanding policies like year-round E15 can help improve demand, provide certainty and reduce the risk of further farm closures.

Together, short-term assistance and long-term policy solutions will help protect rural communities and ensure farmers can continue producing the food, fuel and fiber Americans rely on.

AFBF analysis estimates national average returns over total costs using USDA ERS cost of production data, USDA WASDE price and supply estimates, USDA NASS acreage data and FAPRI projections. Estimates are intended to provide a national view of crop sector financial conditions and will vary by farm, region, yield, marketing decisions and cost structure.

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A study from the American Farm Bureau Federation shows the economic situation in rural America will only get worse. Chad Smith has the story.

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• Regenerative agriculture is already widespread. USDA's new $700 million Regenerative Pilot Program builds on practices that farmers and ranchers have been adopting for decades.

• The most recent USDA data reveals that farmers adopted USDA-supported regenerative agriculture practices on nearly 40 million acres in fiscal year 2023 – an increase of more than 360% compared to a decade prior.

• Over the last two decades, the most widely adopted regenerative practices include grazing management, pest management conservation systems, nutrient management programs and cover crops.

• The overall conservation footprint in the U.S. is enormous when considering all conservation programs. In fiscal year 2023 farmers, ranchers and conservationists received financial and technical assistance for USDA-supported conservation practices on nearly 70 million acres. Importantly, on many of these acres, farmers and ranchers employ conservation practices year after year, demonstrating their ongoing commitment to protecting our soil, water, air and wildlife habitat.

Regenerative (Agriculture) Pilot Program

In December 2025, USDA announced a $700 million Regenerative (Agriculture) Pilot Program (RPP) designed to help farmers and ranchers adopt conservation practices that improve soil health and enhance water quality. Of the $700 million directed through the RPP, $400 million was for conservation practices under the Environmental Quality Incentives Program and $300 million was allocated for conservation practices under the Conservation Stewardship Program – two of the largest voluntary working lands programs operated by USDA with projected outlays of over $43 billion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s February 2026 baseline.

As part of the original RPP rollout, USDA identified 15 primary qualifying practices including cover crops, conservation crop rotation, grazing management systems, pest management systems, no-till and reduced-till tillage management, and irrigation water management, among others. These are just some of the regenerative agriculture practices that farmers and ranchers voluntarily practice on their farms.

Regenerative Practices Across American Agriculture

While USDA is incorporating these Natural Resources Conservation Service practices as part of the RPP, farmers and ranchers have been adopting these practices for decades. Data from USDA’s Soil and Water Resources Conservation Act conservation program reports reveals that from fiscal year 2005 to fiscal year 2023 (the most recent year of available data), farmers and ranchers voluntarily enrolled and increased their participation in a variety of conservation programs now classified by USDA as regenerative. These acres were enrolled in either a primary regenerative agriculture practice or an enhanced practice that is designed to achieve a level of conservation beyond the minimum practice standards, e.g., cover crop (practice code 340) or enhanced cover crop (practice code E340).

In fiscal year 2014, just over 8 million acres were enrolled in a regenerative agriculture practice. By fiscal year 2023, nearly 40 million acres were enrolled in a regenerative agriculture practice or an enhanced regenerative agriculture practice, representing an increase of over 360% over the 10-year period.

Year after year the top regenerative agricultural practices include grazing management followed by pest management, nutrient management and cover crops.

• Grazing management systems help farmers better manage livestock, pastures and soils to achieve specific economic and conservation objectives.

• Pest management conservation systems target only pests threatening crop productivity and can help farmers reduce their application of crop protection tools and enhance soil and water quality.

• Nutrient management systems are designed according to the 4Rs – the right nutrient source, at the right rate, right time and right place – to increase nutrient efficiency and enhance water and air quality.

• Cover crops help reduce soil erosion, build organic matter and improve nutrient cycling. Beyond soil health, cover crops help in weed suppression and water infiltration into the soil and provide wildlife habitat.

Farmers and Ranchers are America’s Original Conservationists

While the focus of this analysis is the adoption of regenerative agriculture practices through USDA’s financial and technical assistance efforts, it is important to acknowledge that many farmers adopt and continue to utilize voluntary conservation practices outside of the traditional USDA-funded efforts. Farmers and ranchers also participate in state-level initiatives and initiatives with private sector partners. Some fund their own efforts.

When including all USDA-funded conservation efforts such as the Conservation Reserve Program, the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program and the Regional Conservation Partnership Program, among others, in fiscal year 2023 alone farmers, ranchers and conservationists had deployed an approved conservation practice on nearly 70 million acres of activity.

Across America’s breadbasket and throughout the prairies, forestlands, croplands and orchards, regenerative agriculture practices are woven into the landscape. Farmers have been integrating these practices for decades to find what works best for their farms. Because these practices are not one-size-fits-all, regenerative and traditional practices can go hand-in-hand on a journey of continuous improvement.

Farm Bureau recognizes regenerative agriculture as any production system that minimizes environmental impacts, maximizes production, promotes stewardship, and increases economic viability and the productivity of soil over time. Importantly, Farm Bureau supports voluntary regenerative agriculture initiatives – conservation efforts that have long been a fixture of American agriculture. We recognize that every farm is different, and that making any change on the farm takes careful planning and comes with extra expense. Every farmer should have the opportunity to make the changes that work best for their farm, without placing their farm’s economic sustainability at risk.

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Farmers are taking significant steps to reduce their impact on the environment. Chad Smith has more on the stats behind regenerative agriculture.

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The American Farm Bureau Federation is celebrating the men and women of agriculture who helped build America. AFBF Executive Vice President Joby Young joined Mike Pearson on This Week in AgriBusiness to discuss FARM 250 and the Senate's version of the 2026 farm bill. You can watch the interview here.

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American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall and National Farmers Union President Rob Larew issued a joint statement today on reports that USDA plans to rescind rules that protect farmers under the Packers and Stockyards Act.

“America’s farmers are deeply troubled by news that USDA plans to rescind or continue to delay several rules that are specifically designed to benefit America’s farmers and ranchers. The rules help protect farmers from retaliation by large processors, increase transparency and improve pay systems for contract poultry growers. They make it clear that unfair and deceptive practices by meatpackers will not be tolerated, and they take on the poultry tournament pay system that for too long created winners and losers based on factors outside of growers’ control.

“The American Farm Bureau Federation and National Farmers Union, representing millions of farm families, worked for years advocating for a more level playing field. That progress is now at risk of being undone.

“The Trump administration has long said that it supports farmers and ranchers, but voiding these rules would do the exact opposite. Instead, more power would be given to large processing companies at the expense of America’s farmers. We urge President Trump and Secretary Rollins to demonstrate their commitment to farmers by leaving these critical safeguards in place.”

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Key Takeaways

• Since 1982, cropland, pastureland and rangeland have declined, while developed land has increased by nearly 48 million acres (66%), roughly the size of Nebraska.
• Acres moving between cropland, pasture and the Conservation Reserve Program may remain connected to agriculture, while land converted to housing, industrial sites, roads or other built uses is far less likely to return to production.
• In 2024, more than 2 million landowners rented out 347.8 million acres for agricultural purposes, with non-operating landlords controlling 79% of rented-out acres.
• More than a third of non-operating landlords are 75 or older, but less than 5% of owned farmland is expected to be sold or gifted in the next five years, leaving trusts, wills, heirs and lease decisions central to who can keep farming.

Farmland pressure is often discussed as a national acreage-loss problem, but for farmers and ranchers the more immediate challenge is land access. Land can remain technically “agricultural” while becoming harder to rent, buy or keep in production. At the same time, acres converted to development, energy infrastructure or other built uses often do not return to farmland or ranchland.

The U.S. is not facing a sudden farmland cliff, but agricultural land is being reshaped by two concurrent forces: physical land-use change and ownership transition. Some acres are shifting among cropland, pasture and the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), while others are being permanently converted to development. Meanwhile, a large share of land used for farming is controlled by absentee landlords, raising questions about succession planning, access for young, beginning and new farmers, rental access and long-term affordability.

Two recent USDA reports help frame these pressures. The 2022 National Resources Inventory (NRI), released in September 2025 by USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service, tracks land cover and land-use changes on non-federal lands, including cropland, pastureland, rangeland, forestland, developed land and CRP land. The 2024 Tenure, Ownership, and Transition of Agricultural Land survey, released in March 2026 by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and Economic Research Service, adds the ownership lens by examining rented agricultural land, landlord ownership structures and expected land transfers.

For agriculture, the risk is not just how many acres remain on paper. It is whether productive land remains available, affordable and workable as development, energy projects, data centers and generational ownership turnover increase competition for the same land base.

The Land Base is Changing, but not all Change is the Same

The NRI shows how large and varied the U.S. land base remains. In 2022, forestland was the largest land-use category in the NRI study area at 421.5 million acres, followed by federal land at 406.4 million acres, rangeland at 399.7 million acres and cropland at 364.3 million acres. Pastureland totaled 125.4 million acres, just above developed land at 120.2 million acres.

These categories are not the same as an all-purpose measure of “farmland.” The 2022 NRI covers the 48 contiguous states, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but not Alaska, which contains a large share of U.S. federal land (over 220 million acres). Federal land is also reported separately from the non-federal rural land-use categories the NRI tracks most closely. As a result, NRI totals are best used to understand land cover and land-use change across the primary agricultural footprint, not as a direct substitute for all-50-state land ownership or land-in-farms estimates.

Even with those limitations, the long-term direction is clear. From 1982 to 2022, cropland declined by 55.7 million acres, a 13% drop from 1982 levels and an acreage loss similar to the size of the state of Kansas. Rangeland declined by 16.3 million acres (about the size of West Virginia), down 4%, while pastureland declined by 5.7 million acres, also about 4%. Over the same period, developed land increased by 47.6 million acres, an expansion roughly the size of Nebraska and equal to about 2.5% of the entire NRI study area. Developed land now totals 120.2 million acres, or about 6% of the land and water area covered by the inventory. Forestland, other rural land and land enrolled in the CRP also increased, reinforcing that the land base is moving in multiple directions.

These comparisons put the scale in perspective, but they should not be read as a one-for-one transfer from farmland to development. A decline in cropland does not mean every acre became housing, warehouses or pavement. Some acres shifted into pasture, conservation cover, forest or other rural uses, while temporarily fallow acres generally remain within the cropland category. Other acres can move back into production as commodity markets, livestock needs, conservation contracts, drought conditions or management decisions change. Net acreage changes show direction, but it does not fully capture how much land is moving among rural uses beneath the surface.

The Conservation Reserve Program is a federal conservation program that pays landowners to remove environmentally sensitive land from production and establish long-term vegetative cover. It was created under the Food Security Act of 1985, so CRP does not appear in the 1982 baseline. In the NRI, the CRP category generally reflects land enrolled through general CRP signup. Acres enrolled through continuous CRP, which targets specific conservation practices or environmentally sensitive areas, are instead counted based on their observed land cover or use, such as grassland, forest or marsh. As a result, the NRI’s CRP category is useful for tracking land-use change, but it should not be read as identical to total CRP enrollment.

Development has Slowed, but Conversion has not Stopped

Development is the most permanent land-use pressure in the NRI, but the timing of that growth matters. Developed land increased from 72.6 million acres in 1982 to 120.2 million acres in 2022, a 66% increase. That means about 40% of all developed land in the NRI study area was developed during the last four decades.

Developed land in the NRI is broader than subdivisions or city growth. It includes large urban and built-up areas of at least 10 acres, small built-up areas between 0.25 and 10 acres and rural transportation corridors such as roads, highways and rail lines. Large urban and built-up areas drove most of the increase, nearly doubling from 46.5 million acres in 1982 to 90.5 million acres in 2022. Small built-up areas rose from 4.8 million acres to 7.5 million acres, while rural transportation remained near 22 million acres, meaning the long-term increase in developed land has come mostly from built-up expansion rather than new transportation corridors.

The pace of conversion, however, has slowed. New development peaked during the 1992–1997 period, when 10.8 million acres moved into developed uses. By comparison, newly developed land totaled roughly 3 million to 3.4 million acres in each of the last two five-year periods. That slowdown matters, but it should not be mistaken for a halt in conversion. Even at a slower pace, millions of acres are still being removed from the rural land base every five years.

The source of that newly developed land also complicates the story. Development is not coming only from cropland. Across the period studied, forestland contributed the largest share of newly developed land, followed by cropland, pastureland, rangeland and other rural land.

For agriculture, the concern is where conversion happens. Development pressure is often concentrated near population growth, transportation corridors, energy infrastructure and expanding regional economies. In those places, the loss of even a relatively small number of acres can matter if it fragments fields, raises nearby land values, complicates livestock operations or reduces the supply of land available for farmers trying to rent or buy.

Cropland is Moving, not Just Disappearing

From 2017 to 2022, most cropland remained in place. Of the 365 million acres classified as cropland in 2017, 357.3 million acres were still cropland in 2022. Among cropland acres that did shift to other uses, the largest movement was into pastureland at 5.65 million acres. By comparison, 687,000 acres moved from cropland into developed land (roughly the size of Rhode Island).

Cropland also gained acres from other rural uses. The largest source was pastureland, which contributed 4.15 million acres to cropland between 2017 and 2022, followed by 2.11 million acres from land enrolled in the CRP. In other words, the biggest recent exchange was not cropland to development, but cropland and pasture moving back and forth.

Land Access is Also a Control Issue

The land-use data show what acres are used for. The ownership data shows who controls access to farmland. That distinction is important because rented land is a major part of U.S. agriculture, not a small corner of the land market. In 2022, 39% of U.S. agricultural land was rented, roughly consistent with the share seen over the previous five decades. Rented land is especially important for larger operations and for farmers who use leasing as a way to expand without taking on the full cost of land ownership.

USDA’s 2024 Tenure, Ownership, and Transition of Agricultural Land survey shows how much of that rented land is controlled outside active farm operations. In 2024, more than 2 million landowners rented out 347.8 million acres for agricultural purposes. Cropland accounted for 59% of those rented acres, and non-operating landlords controlled 276.1 million acres, or nearly four out of every five rented acres. In practical terms, a large share of the land farmers operate depends on decisions made by landlords who are not actively farming that ground.

Those decisions are shaped by how land is owned. Among non-operating landlords, privately owned land accounted for 104.8 million rented acres, while trusts and family legal entities accounted for another 146.6 million acres combined. That ownership structure matters for access because the decision to keep land rented, sell it, place it in a trust, pass it through a will or consider non-farm offers often sits outside the farm operator’s control.

More than a third of non-operating landlords were 75 or older, and that group controlled over 40% of rented acres held by non-operating landlords. At the same time, less than 5% of owned farmland is expected to transition through sales or gifts in the next five years. Larger shares are tied to estate planning, with 10% expected to be placed in a trust and 15% written into a will.

For farmers and ranchers, the land question increasingly comes down to continuity. Land can remain agricultural but become harder to access if heirs choose different lease terms, ownership shifts into a trust, or competing offers from development, energy or other non-farm uses raise the opportunity cost of keeping land in production. The generational handoff underway may not place a large share of farmland on the market, but it will shape who can rent, buy and keep working agricultural land.

Local Pressures Reshape Land Competition

National acreage totals can make emerging land pressures look small, but farmers and ranchers experience land competition locally. A solar project, data center, subdivision or outside investment may represent a small share of U.S. agricultural land, but it can have a much larger effect in a specific county, irrigation district or production region where land, water, power and road infrastructure are limited.

Solar facilities are not tracked as a separate NRI land-use category, but utility-scale projects can create long-term competition for farmland in areas with strong transmission access. Data centers bring similar tradeoffs, offering tax base and infrastructure investment while competing for land, power and water. Foreign ownership remains a small share of the national agricultural land base, but recent increases have been tied in part to renewable energy-related acquisitions. High land values add another layer by increasing the opportunity cost of keeping land in production.

Conclusion

The U.S. is not facing an immediate farmland cliff, and recent cropland movement shows that many acres continue to shift among crop, pasture and conservation uses. But those shifts are not the same as development. Once land moves into housing, industrial sites, roads, energy infrastructure or other built uses, future agricultural use becomes far less likely.

That distinction is increasingly important as land competition intensifies. Development, solar projects, data centers, high land values and ownership transitions do not affect every acre equally, but they can quickly reshape local land markets where farmers are already competing for limited ground. For farmers operating on rented land, those pressures are even more significant because access often depends on decisions made by landlords, heirs, trusts or entities outside the farm operation.

The long-term challenge is not just preserving acreage on paper. It is maintaining a land base that can actually support production. As agriculture faces rising costs, tighter margins and increasing competition from non-farm uses, land-use decisions made today will shape whether the next generation of farmers and ranchers can enter, expand and keep working the land needed to support the U.S. farm economy.

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The recent June acreage report gave a small look into the farm economy but didn’t tell the whole story. Chad Smith has additional insights.

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