• A small refinery exemption lets certain small oil refineries temporarily avoid part or all of the federal requirement to use renewable fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel.

• When exempted obligations are not reassigned to other refiners, the overall renewable fuel requirement effectively shrinks, reducing demand for RINs and weakening the incentive to blend renewable fuels.

• For farmers, unreallocated exemptions mean weaker demand for agricultural products, particularly corn used for ethanol and soybean oil used for biomass-based diesel.

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requires minimum volumes of renewable fuels to be used in the U.S. transportation fuel supply. The program is important to agriculture because one of its objectives is to support rural economies by expanding demand for crops used to produce biofuels. Corn is the primary feedstock for conventional ethanol, while oils from crops such as soybeans, and other fats, are important feedstocks for biomass-based diesel.

But not every refinery is required to fully comply with the RFS. Qualifying small refineries can petition the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for temporary relief through a small refinery exemption, or SRE, if they demonstrate that RFS compliance would cause “disproportionate economic hardship.”

How Does the RFS Work?

Each year, EPA sets Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for fuel importers and oil refiners to comply with the RFS. RVOs are set across four categories: total renewable fuel, advanced biofuel, cellulosic biofuel, and biomass-based diesel. These national volumes are converted into percentage requirements that determine how much renewable fuel individual refiners and fuel importers must account for based on their gasoline and diesel production or imports.

Compliance is tracked through Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs. A RIN is generated when qualifying renewable fuel is produced or imported. Once the fuel is blended, the RIN can be separated and traded. Refiners comply by obtaining RINs through blending renewable fuel or purchasing RINs from other market participants. The RIN is ultimately turned in or “retired” to demonstrate compliance with the refinery's RVO. Different fuels generate different types of RINs:

• D4 RINs represent biomass-based diesel

• D5 RINs represent advanced biofuels

• D6 RINs primarily represent ethanol

• D3 and D7 RINs represent cellulosic fuels

RINs trade in a secondary market, and their prices change because they balance the supply of biofuels with the amount needed to satisfy RFS obligations. When meeting the mandate becomes more difficult or expensive, RIN prices generally increase because a stronger incentive is needed to produce or consume the required renewable fuel. When compliance requirements become easier to meet, RIN prices generally fall.

Where Do Small Refinery Exemptions Fit?

The RFS allows qualifying small refineries to seek an extension of the program's original small-refinery exemption when they can demonstrate disproportionate economic hardship. When EPA grants an SRE, that refinery is relieved of some or all of its RFS compliance obligation.

That matters beyond the individual refinery because reducing an effective RVO reduces the number of RINs needed for compliance. Fewer required RINs mean lower demand for RINs, which can lower the market price of RINs.

SREs for the 2016 through 2018 compliance years ultimately exempted approximately 4 billion RINs from RFS obligations. Those exemptions effectively reduced RVOs, and RIN prices fell sharply as the market adjusted to the smaller compliance requirement. However, falling RIN prices do not mean fuel prices will be lower.

Why Farmers Care

For agriculture, the connection runs through biofuel demand. The RFS creates demand for renewable fuels because obligated parties must acquire and retire RINs to meet their thresholds. D6 RINs are primarily tied to corn ethanol, while D4 RINs are tied to fuels produced from feedstocks including soybean oils.

SREs therefore matter because they can change the size of the effective renewable fuel requirement. A smaller requirement means fewer RINs are needed, which weakens the compliance-driven incentive for renewable fuel use. That does not mean every exempted RIN translates directly into a lost gallon of biofuel or lost bushel of corn, but it does change one of the policy mechanisms supporting biofuel demand.

Conclusion

Small refinery exemptions provide relief to qualifying refineries facing disproportionate economic hardship, but when exempted volumes are not reallocated, the effects can extend beyond the refinery and into farm country. Unreallocated exemptions reduce the effective RFS requirement, lowering the number of RINs needed for compliance and potentially weakening the incentive to blend renewable fuels. For farmers, that can translate into softer demand for corn, soybean oil, and other biofuel feedstocks. Farm Bureau opposes small refinery exemptions, but if exemptions are granted, the associated RFS obligations should be reallocated to preserve overall renewable fuel demand the RFS was designed to support.

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The trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada is best described as “tense.” Chad Smith has details.

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American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall commented on the presidential proclamation issued today by President Trump that allows beef imports to increase by 300,000 metric tons – more than 660 million pounds – over a 90-day period, undermining the U.S. cattle sector’s recovery.   

“One of the few bright spots for U.S. agriculture right now – the cattle sector – just became dimmer because of today’s presidential proclamation. The timing of this proclamation is a gut punch to ranchers’ bottom line. The claim of ensuring these added imports do not ‘disrupt the orderly marketing of commodities in the U.S.’ falls flat when ranchers are now selling their cattle into a market in sharp decline. It’s not too late to reverse this decision, and we urge the president to consider the economic harm this causes America’s ranchers.   

“A strong domestic food supply is easy to take for granted … until it’s gone. We also urge the administration not to make any changes to the renewable fuel standard that would further destabilize farmers who raise corn, soybeans and other crops. Farmers and ranchers are proud to raise the food, fiber and fuel America’s families rely on, but pride doesn’t pay the bills in an upside-down farm economy.”  

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The President’s plan to facilitate record imports of beef will have a significant impact on farmers and ranchers who are rebuilding their herds devastated by drought. American Farm Bureau Federation economists analyzed the potential consequences of increased imports in the latest Farm Bureau Intel. Also today, Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall sent a letter to President Trump urging him to reconsider his plan to flood the market with foreign beef.

President Trump announced last week that he plans to import up to 300,000 metric tons of beef over a 90-day period in an attempt to ease record-high ground beef prices. But the timing could work against ranchers who are deciding whether to expand their herds. It’s estimated that 70% of spring-born calves are sold between September and November, which fall within the increased import window. A glut of foreign raised beef could drive down prices paid to ranchers at a time when critical farm business decisions are made.

Falling prices paid to farmers would be the latest blow to a sector that just recently began a fragile recovery. AFBF economists write, “The reason for the historically small beef cow herd is multifaceted. First, drought conditions across much of the U.S. has forced ranchers to liquidate cattle or put cattle on feed because of the lack of homegrown forage. Second, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service’s cost and return data, input costs for cow-calf producers, i.e., ranchers who maintain a herd of beef cows for breeding purposes, reached a record high of $1,762 per head in 2025. Nearly every line item for cow-calf operators is more expensive today than ever before. Since 2020, prior to the most recent inflationary environment, production costs are up more than $400 per head, or nearly 30%.”

In his letter to President Trump, Mr. Duvall wrote, “A key tenant of your reelection campaign was affordability, including the costs of essentials like groceries and gas. Bringing down the price of cattle will not bring the price of beef down for American families. Instead, it will discourage American farmers and ranchers from making long-term investments in herd rebuilding, extending the cycle of tight cattle supplies, high production costs and elevated beef prices for consumers. To put it simply, allowing 300,000 metric tons—equivalent to more than 660 million pounds—of foreign beef into the United States at a 25% discount 'below market prices' will undermine America’s ranchers who work tirelessly to grow food for American families.”

America currently has the lowest beef cow inventory in more than 50 years.

To read the Farm Bureau Intel, click here.

To read the letter to President Trump, click here.

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Key Takeaways

• Today’s beef price challenges are a supply problem years in the making. Record ground beef prices are the result of the lowest beef cow inventory since 1971, driven by drought-forced liquidation and production costs that have jumped nearly 30% since 2020 — not a sudden or easily reversible shortage.

• Herd rebuilding is finally happening, but it's fragile. A 3% increase in beef heifers kept for replacement signals ranchers are starting to retain heifers rather than sell them, but this is happening alongside falling prices paid to farmers (down 14%) — a combination that could easily discourage the very rebuilding that's needed.

• Import timing could work against the herd-rebuilding goal. With roughly 70% of spring-born calves sold between September and November, the 90-day import window overlaps directly with this critical selling period, likely driving prices down further just as ranchers are weighing whether to expand their herds.

The administration recently revealed plans to allow up to 300,000 metric tons of beef – equivalent to more than 660 million pounds of beef – to be imported into the U.S. over a 90-day period in an attempt to reduce consumer prices for ground beef. This plan is being considered largely because Bureau of Labor Statistics data reveals that the average retail price for ground beef reached a record $6.90 per pound in April 2026 and remains near that level. Importantly, this announcement comes when beef imports into the U.S. are already record high and during the very window of time that many ranchers will be selling their cattle.

Historically Low Beef Cow Inventory and Plant Closures

One of the primary reasons beef, and in particular ground beef prices, reached a record high in 2026 is the historically low beef cow inventory. According to USDA’s July Cattle Inventory report the number of beef cows as of July 1 was 28.5 million head, the lowest level since the series first began in 1971. The calf crop also remains historically low at 32.5 million head but beef heifers kept for replacement was up 3% compared to prior year levels – signaling heifer retention has begun across the U.S.

Efforts to rebuild the U.S. cattle herd are fragile at best. Anecdotally, approximately 70% of the spring-born calves are sold during the months of September to November – months that overlap heavily with the 90-day import window announced by the administration.

Despite the historically low cattle herd, due to a number of packing plant closures across the U.S., continued efforts to increase beef imports, and the phased reopening of the border with Mexico, cash cattle prices have fallen 14%, or nearly $40 per hundredweight, in recent months. Meanwhile, the beef cutout value, an approximation of the wholesale value of beef, has climbed to near historic highs, contributing to higher retail prices.

Record-High Production Expenses

The reason for the historically small beef cow herd is multifaceted. First, drought conditions across much of the U.S. has forced ranchers to liquidate cattle or put cattle on feed because of the lack of homegrown forage. Second, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service’s cost and return data, input costs for cow-calf producers, i.e., ranchers who maintain a herd of beef cows for breeding purposes, reached a record high of $1,762 per head in 2025. Nearly every line item for cow-calf operators is more expensive today than ever before. Since 2020, prior to the most recent inflationary environment, production costs are up more than $400 per head, or nearly 30%.

Positive Returns for the First Time in a Long Time

When evaluating total costs of production against revenue, there are two metrics to review: returns over variable costs and returns over total costs. If returns over variable costs are greater than zero, then the optimal business decision is to raise the livestock or crop and pay down the fixed expenses and debt. If the returns over total cost are positive, then the market returns exceed both the operating costs and the fixed costs. In the cow-calf space, and on average, that has never been the case, according to USDA data.

Recent years have been among some of the best economic years for cow-calf producers, allowing them to make reinvestments into their farm and ranch operations such as making capital purchases, updating equipment, and improving facilities such as fencing or barn roofs, among other investments. However, the positive returns are above variable costs only. When considering fixed costs such as land, taxes and machinery, returns above the total cost of production for cow-calf operations have been negative for 30 consecutive years. It is for these reasons that efforts to increase beef imports will further undermine the economic incentive for ranchers to make the investment to rebuild the herd.

Summary

The administration's plan to import up to 300,000 metric tons of beef is aimed at easing record-high ground beef prices, but it arrives at a moment when the underlying economics of the cattle industry are already fragile. The beef cow herd sits at its lowest level in over 50 years, not because ranchers lack incentive to rebuild, but because drought and record production costs have made expansion a financial risk.

Finally seeing the returns needed to justify reinvesting in their herds, cow-calf producers are beginning to hold on to their heifers and starting to rebuild. A surge of imports coinciding with the fall calf-selling season and the drop in cattle prices that would come with those imports would jeopardize that. The result could be a policy that offers short-term relief at the grocery store while working against the longer-term goal of a larger, more resilient American cattle herd.

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Across rural America, the strength of our communities has always been rooted in looking out for one another. Yet, behind the resilience of our farms, ranches and small towns are real people facing real challenges, including mental health struggles that too often remain unseen and unspoken about. 

This September, in observance of Suicide Prevention Month, Farm State of Mind® is releasing a new five-part video series that offers real-world insights and showcases innovative, grassroots strategies designed to move the needle on mental well-being in rural communities. All conversations are moderated by Lydia Johnson, a veteran farm broadcast journalist who now works as a policy communications manager at Farm Credit Council.

Finding Hope Together: A Farm State of Mind® Insights Series is an invitation to have honest conversations, share practical insights and discover how each of us can play a role in creating stronger, healthier communities. The series is meant for anyone looking to support mental health well-being in rural America, whether that’s in your hometown, among your co-op or other network, or on a regional or national scale. New episodes will premiere every Wednesday in September, but we hope the insights will inspire people year-round to take action.

How to Watch

Each episode will be available on American Farm Bureau’s YouTube channel and at FarmStateOfMind.org. In addition, you can subscribe here to receive each episode delivered directly to your email inbox each week.

Episode Guide

Episode 1 - Perspectives from the Field: Firsthand Farmer Experiences 

Premieres Wednesday, Sept. 2

Tune in for a candid conversation with farmers Davis Peeler (South Carolina), Steve Breeding (Delaware), and Whitney Lawson (Oklahoma) as they share firsthand experiences navigating the mental load of farming — from loss and divorce to farm disasters. This episode dives into the realities of the agricultural way of life, offering a message of hope and actionable advice for how to support farmers through difficult seasons.  

Episode 2 - Turning Concern into Action at the Grassroots Level 

Premieres Wednesday, Sept. 9  

Grassroots advocates are essential to effective outreach, and many have identified tactics that are currently working in rural communities. Hear from Marshal Sewell (founder of the Mind Your Melon Foundation), Adrienne DeSutter (founder of Sow Hope, Grow Hope), and John Sachse (founder of RanchFIT coaching) as they discuss the unique programs they’ve built to improve mental well-being among farmers and ranchers. These leaders share what inspired them to "get off the fence," along with the practical insights gained along the way toward reducing stigma and creating a culture where mental health is supported proactively, rather than only at a point of crisis.  

Episode 3 - Expanding Access to Mental Health Resources for Rural Communities

Premieres Wednesday, Sept. 16

Clinical voices are key to closing the rural health care gap and offering proactive support to farm communities. Tune in for an exploration of rural care gaps and practical approaches for overcoming barriers with Dr. Ben Locke (Togetherall), Dr. Josie Rudolphi (University of Illinois), and Dr. Tara Haskins (AgriSafe Network). These experts will discuss evidence-based programs, technology and alternative support models that serve as innovative strategies for improving care access and navigating critical situations in farming and rural communities. These insights will help the practitioner and community member alike.

Episode 4 - The Power of Storytelling to Address Stigma

Premieres Wednesday, Sept. 23

Storytelling has the power to capture people’s attention, drive a conversation around rural mental health, and ultimately break through the stigma that too often is a barrier to seeking help. Hear from Brandee Izquierdo (Pew Charitable Trusts), Chris Files (“Out of the Shadows" 2025 documentary) and Sam Goldberg (2017 film “Silo,” 2026 limited tv series “Perfect Sundays") to explore how storytelling reshapes mental health engagement in rural communities and fosters a culture of proactive support.

Episode 5 - The Importance of Ag Stakeholder Involvement

Premieres Wednesday, Sept. 30

Explore the critical role of industry leadership in supporting farmer and rancher well-being. Join Anne Thompson (Farm Credit Council), Jessica Cabrera (American Farm Bureau Federation) and Tim Brennan (Farm Foundation) as they discuss how agricultural stakeholders are investing in mental health wellness. This episode delivers practical insights into leveraging collective influence and industry partnerships to support farm families nationwide.

Additional Mental Health Resources

American Farm Bureau Federation’s Farm State of Mind initiative has a two-fold objective: to build awareness to reduce stigma and provide access to information and resources that promote farmer and rancher mental health wellness. Visit FarmStateOfMind.org to access a national directory of mental health resources by state; tips on recognizing warning signs and how to start a conversation; Togetherall: an anonymous peer-to-peer support network that is free to all farmers and farm family members (ages 16+)​; no-cost counseling and consultation services for farm families nationwide​; free on-demand Rural Resilience training; and more. If you or someone you know is in a crisis situation, call or text 988 or visit 988lifeline.org.

Farm State of Mind Alliance

This series would not be possible without the support of the Farm State of Mind Alliance, which brings together the nation's largest farmer membership organizations and the industry's most trusted brands to further support farmer and rancher well-being. By coordinating efforts under one initiative, the Alliance expands access to mental health resources and strengthens the culture of care among farm families and rural communities. To learn more about the Alliance, or if you are interested in joining, visit Fb.org/fsom-alliance.

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Key Takeaways

• The beef production cycle is a long-term process that takes several years to complete.

• Cattle farmers’ daily decisions affect the beef supply and prices for years to come.

• America’s beef cattle herd is at its lowest level since the 1970s, reflecting the years of depressed prices, high input costs and persistent drought conditions ranchers have faced.

Americans care about where their food comes from, how it’s raised and what it costs. That’s especially true today as beef prices remain near record highs.

What many people don’t realize is that beef on the grocery store shelves is the result of a production process that takes several years to complete. Along the way, farmers and ranchers are making important decisions that affect how much beef is available, which is a big factor in what consumers pay at the store.

Today’s higher beef prices are the result of challenges that have been building for years, including drought, rising production costs, and the smallest U.S. beef cow herd in more than five decades. Because cattle take time to raise, rebuilding the nation’s beef supply cannot happen overnight. This means that current events that factor into the decisions farmers and ranchers make today can have impacts on beef prices in the future.

To better understand why cattle herd numbers matter and how they affect grocery store prices, as well as how policy decisions can affect future beef supplies, it’s helpful to understand the entire production cycle.

Beef Production Cycle

The process begins when a cow gives birth to a calf. For the first several months of its life, the calf remains with its mother, nursing and grazing while receiving care from farmers. The calf is typically weaned (removed from the care of its mother) at 6 to 10 months of age, when it weighs between 500 and 700 pounds. At this stage, farmers have a big decision to make; they can either retain the calf for breeding or sell it to begin the beef production process. Approximately 70% of the cattle growers have calve in the spring, which means they are marketed in the fall.

Option #1: Retain the calf for breeding purposes

By retaining the heifer (female) calf, the rancher chooses to expand their herd by way of the heifer’s future calves. In doing so, they forego any revenue they would have received from feeding that animal for beef production. Retention rates have dwindled in recent years due to ongoing drought and rising operating costs, driving ranchers to market their heifer calves for beef production rather than keep them for herd expansion.

At about 12-15 months of age, the heifer will be bred. Ranchers breed their heifers to bulls selected for a variety of genetic factors to maximize the beef production potential while also prioritizing the likelihood of a safe and healthy gestation (pregnancy) period. Once bred, it takes 283 days for a heifer to produce a calf. Once the calf is born, its mother (now considered a cow) will feed and care for it until it reaches its desired weaning weight. At that point, the rancher again decides whether to retain the calf for breeding purposes or market it for beef production. As for the cow, the rancher will typically opt to repeat the cycle, waiting about 85 days to breed her again to maintain a yearly calving interval.

A healthy, well-cared for beef cow can typically produce calves until they are roughly 10 years old. Once the cow reaches that age, the rancher will usually sell it to a feedyard or finishing operation, where it is then sold to a meatpacker for processing.

The retention of bull (male) calves for breeding purposes is less common, as ranchers typically seek to breed their heifers and cows on bulls from other herds. However, if a rancher raises and sells breeding animals with superior genetics (known as seedstock) to other ranchers, they might choose to raise the bull calf separate from their herd, with the hopes of marketing the bull’s semen to other beef operations for breeding purposes.

Option #2: Put the calf into the beef supply chain

If the farmer decides the calf will enter the beef supply chain, it will most likely be placed in a feedlot or on pasture to grow. As the animal develops, it gains weight to around 900 pounds over the next six to eight months, depending the animal’s weight when this step begins. At about 900 pounds and roughly 18 months of age, the animal is then typically finished in a feedlot where it receives a carefully balanced diet designed to support growth and high-quality beef. Today’s cattle are often raised to weights approaching 1,500 pounds before being marketed.

Once cattle reach the desired weight, farmers and ranchers sell them to meat processors (sometimes called packers). The beef is then graded for quality, processed into larger wholesale cuts, and shipped as boxed beef throughout the food system. From there, it moves to grocery stores, restaurants, food distributors and export markets around the world.

The final step is the one consumers see everyday. Beef is cut into familiar products such as steaks and roasts and turned into ground beef for sale at grocery stores and restaurants.

Summary

While this journey may seem straight forward, the decisions made along the way can change the beef supply for years. When drought, rising production costs or adverse market conditions cause ranchers to sell their cattle, it reduces the national herd size. The herd takes years to rebuild and can be a fragile process.

Ranchers can’t afford to risk investing in rebuilding their herd if there’s not at least a solid chance the investment will pay off. When cattle markets are highly uncertain or volatile, the risk is too great, discouraging ranchers from keeping cattle and rebuilding their herds. That’s why today’s beef prices reflect decisions and challenges that began several years ago.

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American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall commented today on the breakdown of trade talks between the United States and Canada, and the imposition of additional damaging tariffs.

“Canada has been one of the most important trading partners for U.S. agriculture since our first free trade agreement in 1989. We are concerned that talks with our northern neighbor around a resolution to Section 338 tariffs have fallen apart in the midst of the USMCA review. We strongly urge the U.S. and Canada to return to the negotiating table and find a resolution.

“Our strong agreements with Canada and Mexico have eliminated nearly all tariffs for U.S. agriculture, allowing the majority of our farm products to enter those markets duty- and quota-free. Additional tariff escalations and subsequent retaliation will hurt U.S. agriculture at a time when farmers and ranchers are already struggling.

“Agricultural exports are a critical component of farm success. More broadly, they create a positive ripple effect across the economy. That’s why we need a de-escalation of tariffs and a renewal of the USMCA that maintains duty-free market access for U.S. agriculture.”

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A new plan from the White House to import foreign beef could deal a significant blow to U.S. cattle ranchers. Chad Smith has details.

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American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall commented today on President Trump’s plan to import an additional 300,000 metric tons of beef in addition to already record-high beef imports.

“Farmers and ranchers are extremely disappointed to learn that President Trump plans to flood the American market with hundreds of millions of pounds of foreign-raised beef. The U.S. is already importing beef at record levels. This decision would be an unprecedented move and would translate to nearly an additional 60% increase in imports over the next 90 days.

“For almost a year now, we’ve been advising the administration that America’s ranchers are working to rebuild beef herds that had to be sold off due to drought. Despite high beef prices in grocery stores, prices paid to farmers and ranchers for their cattle have fallen sharply over the past two months, and beef packing plants are shutting down across the U.S. Further undercutting a fragile recovery by swamping markets with foreign products and attempting to manipulate prices threatens to wipe out any progress that has been made.

“We appreciate the president’s goal of reducing grocery costs, but short-term measures could have long-term negative effects for consumers and for ranchers who are making decisions on whether to retain or expand their herd. Growing dependence on foreign-grown food could ultimately lead to even higher grocery costs and reliance on other nations for our food security. We urge the president to strongly reconsider his plan.”

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