close [X]

Weekly Update on Export Sales

Market Intel / December 13, 2018

Soybean Pace

USDA’s Dec. 13 Foreign Agricultural Service’s Export Sales Report indicated total committed volume for soybean exports is  916 million bushels, up 29 million bushels from last week. With accumulated soybean exports of 526 million bushels and outstanding soybean sales at 390 million bushels, total committed volume remains down from last year, representing a 467-million-bushel or 33 percent decline. Figure 1 illustrates soybean export sales for the first 14 weeks of marketing year 2018/19.

Historically, at this point in the marketing year, about 68 percent of U.S. soybeans have been committed. The current commitment volume of 916 million bushels is 48 percent of the WASDE projection – nearly 1 billion bushels below the WASDE. What’s noteworthy is the despite this current trend the export projection was unchanged in the most recent Dec. 11 WASDE report

One factor driving analysts’ renewed optimism in soybean exports is the recent shift in trade talks with China. According to  FAS, U.S. soybeans recently posted the ninth-largest daily sale since 1977, at 1.1 million metric tons. Given that China is the largest importer of soybeans in the world, it will be important to continue monitoring the trade talks and their impact on the market and the pace of soybean exports.

Corn Export Pace

For the 14th week of the marketing year, USDA reports accumulated corn exports of 619 million bushels and 470 million bushels of outstanding corn sales. The total committed volume is currently 1.09 billion bushels, representing a 153-million-bushel, or 16 percent, increase from last year’s export commitments. Like soybeans, the most recent WASDE report did not update the projected total exports from 2.45 billion bushels. Figure 2 outlines corn export sales for the first 14 weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year.

Megan Nelson
Economic Analyst
(202) 406-3629

Share This Article


Using DTN's proprietary Six Factors Strategies, Grain Market Analyst Todd Hultman has been a thought leader for farmers and agribusinesses on where commodity markets are headed, what signposts to watch for and what to do when those critical points occur. Hultman will discuss his unique view on the markets, how he uses technical and fundamental analysis to shape his view, and will outline where various commodity markets will be headed in 2019 based on trade, export and domestic demand, noncommercial interest in commodities versus other investments, and DTN's unique outlook for 2019 weather and crop production.

Full Article
Credit: iStockPhoto 

The 2018 farm bill builds on the improvements made in the Bipartisan Budget Act to significantly enhance the commodity support from USDA’s Farm Service Agency. Reflecting these changes, the Margin Protection Program was renamed Dairy Margin Coverage. In addition to Title I improvements, the farm bill also allows dairy farmers to fully utilize the risk management tools available through private crop insurance products such as Dairy Revenue Protection or Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Cattle. Along with boosting support for dairy farmers, Congress also modified milk pricing provisions to facilitate improved risk management for the beverage milk industry (Proposed Changes to Fluid Milk Pricing). Then, to address seasonal oversupplies and periodic dumping of milk, a milk donation program was authorized. Today’s article highlighting the new Dairy Margin Coverage program is the first of two to review the major changes made in the dairy subtitle of the 2018 farm bill. The second article in the series will review the pricing changes to Federal Milk Marketing Orders and the new milk donation program.

Full Article