A Promise Worth Keeping: Restoring Certainty to America’s Farmers

When we talk with farmers across the country, from cotton fields in Mississippi and cornfields in Iowa to apple orchards in Washington, the theme is the same: uncertainty. The past few years have tested even the most seasoned farmers. Facing rising input costs, unpredictable market access and many other challenges, farmers and ranchers are working harder while margins grow thinner.

The United States has long prided itself on being able to feed itself and much of the world. But today, that foundation is fracturing. Persistent cost pressures from labor, inputs, energy and overregulation have steadily eroded farm margins, while weak commodity prices and uneven global competition have strained family finances. With razor-thin margins on the farm, more and more farm families rely on off-farm income. Across the countryside, farms that once anchored rural economies are evaluating how and if they can survive another growing year with immense uncertainty. Not because of Mother Nature, but because prices no longer cover the cost of production. As farmers shutter their barns, there are fewer kids in rural schools, fewer dollars spent on rural Main Street and fewer families carrying forward a multigenerational legacy of stewardship and hard work.

Yet U.S. agriculture remains vital to America’s economic strength and national security. Farms and ranches directly support about 22 million jobs and add roughly $1.5 trillion to the economy each year. When the broader food and agriculture supply chain is included — input suppliers to processors, transporters and retailers — the sectors support nearly one in five U.S. jobs and generate more than $6 trillion in economic activity. Ensuring farmers and ranchers can stay in business and keep investing in their communities is fundamental to America’s food security and energy dominance, as well as the larger economy.

To rebuild stability, we need clear, consistent policies that put farmers back on solid ground. In addition to priorities on agricultural labor, or passing a farm bill, Farm Bureau farmer leaders and grassroots members identified additional actions that represent an investment in long-term certainty for all of U.S. agriculture. Read on to learn more.

Fair and Enforceable Trade Agreements

Reliable trade relationships are lifelines for farmers, who export roughly one-fifth of everything grown on U.S. soil. Yet recent years have provided only promise without follow-through. China, for instance, failed to fulfill its agricultural purchase commitments under the Phase One agreement, costing U.S. farmers and ranchers billions in potential sales.

When trade partners meet their obligations and when new agreements expand market opportunities for U.S. agriculture, farmers gain the predictability needed to plan ahead. Enforceable trade agreements such the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement have driven decades of growth in agricultural exports, with shipments to Canada and Mexico more than quadrupling over the past 25 years. A single shipping container of U.S. almonds, pork or soybeans represents not just a sellable product, but payrolls, fuel purchases and community investment. Enforcing existing deals and securing reciprocal market access ensures that rural prosperity isn’t held hostage to uneven global competition.

Policy Support for Biofuels

Biofuels remain one of America’s most effective tools for merging energy security, energy dominance and the farm economy. Every gallon of ethanol or biodiesel sold supports the value of corn, soybeans and sorghum, crops grown by thousands of U.S. farmers. Each year millions of acres of crops are used to produce renewable fuels, helping stabilize prices and create reliable demand even when export markets shift.

Allowing year-round sales of E15 could boost corn demand by more than 2.4 billion bushels annually, helping maintain market prices and offsetting the volatility of export swings. Emerging biofuels markets trying to make a dent in the conventional fuel market, like synthetic (or sustainable) aviation fuel , benefit from tax incentives to boost use of domestically grown feedstocks and livestock products. However, these credits still need clear, adaptable guidance published in a timely manner to encourage biofuel demand for a wider variety of agricultural products. Supporting these markets provides not just energy choice but economic insurance for rural communities tied to feedstock and renewable fuel production.

Restoring Whole Milk in Schools

Milk has been on the menu of American schools for nearly a century, but today, many cafeterias offer only skim or 1% milk. Restoring the option of whole and 2% milk isn’t just about taste, it’s about nutrition and support for U.S. dairy farmers.

If even half of schools switched back to whole milk, national butterfat demand could rise by more than 35 million pounds annually, equivalent to roughly 45 million pounds of finished butter. That’s enough to support numerous dairy farms and reconnect students with the wholesome foods produced on nearby farms. Reintroducing whole milk brings economic and health benefits together in a single carton.

Protecting Interstate Commerce

Recent state-level mandates and laws on farm practices, such as production standards that differ from neighboring states, threaten to fragment the national marketplace.

Today, those same patchwork pressures are emerging in multiple parts of the food system, from animal housing to ingredient labeling to food-safety standards, creating confusion for both consumers and the farmers who supply them. Whether it’s how livestock are raised or how ingredients are listed, a growing number of one-off state rules make it harder to keep shelves stocked and prices low for all American families.

Protecting interstate commerce means protecting the ability of farmers to compete fairly in all markets, no matter their zip code, and ensuring that a pound of bacon or a gallon of milk meets consistent, science-based national standards across the country.

Investigating Input Market Imbalances

Farmers have little control over the cost of production, buying inputs at retail and often selling products at wholesale price. Fertilizer, seed and equipment prices have soared, often outpacing inflation. Total production expenses are forecasted to reach $467 billion in 2025, up 30% from several years ago. Persistent high costs continue to erode profitability, making it harder for farmers to reinvest in their operations.

Transparent pricing and increased competition in these input markets could save farmers billions each year. Enforcement of antitrust and transparency laws doesn’t just punish bad actors; it restores confidence that the marketplace is working as it should. When farmers can plan their budgets knowing their supply chain partners are pricing fairly and competing transparently, they can focus on producing food, not fighting volatility.

Prioritizing American-Grown Fruits and Vegetables

Research shows that among school districts reporting exemptions from the “Buy American” requirement for federally purchased foods, 94% reported exemptions for fruits and 55% for vegetables. Among those, 88% cite limited domestic supply, 43% say U.S. prices are too high, and about one in five points to quality concerns. Yet American fruit and vegetable growers produce hundreds of varieties that can meet these nutritional needs, if given the chance.

Prioritizing U.S.-grown produce in federal and institutional purchasing programs could redirect hundreds of millions of dollars back into domestic fruit and vegetable farms, operations already facing high labor and compliance costs. At the same time, addressing labor shortages through systemic reform and reducing unnecessary regulatory burdens would help ease price pressures that make it hard for American growers to compete with imports from countries with much lower costs. When federal agencies “buy American,” they strengthen the nation’s food security by filling our kids’ plates with healthy, domestically grown foods.

A Renewed Commitment

The economic pressures facing agriculture today are the result of a policy drift. Targeted reforms can help turn the tide, providing the structural certainty farmers deserve in the long term.

Agriculture has always been a partnership between those who grow, those who purchase and those who govern. Fulfilling the promise of American agriculture – to feed, clothe and fuel the world – depends on that partnership being strengthened.

Keeping farmers in business is not optional. It is essential to America’s strength.

Interested in learning more? AFBF’s policy and economics experts are launching a new Market Intel series that will explore policies, markets and strategics to help secure the future of agriculture for America’s farming and ranching families.

John Newton, Ph.D., is vice president of public policy and economic analysis at the American Farm Bureau Federation.