Tariffs and the Storm Gathering Over Farm Country

Farmers are facing a tough fall, and, unfortunately, it could get tougher if we don’t resolve current trade disputes soon. It’s not in my nature to focus on the clouds overhead, but it’s not wise to ignore them either. Farmers across the country are facing a growing economic storm. Row crop prices are low, and production expenses are at record highs. As we hear more rumbles of tariffs, the storm is impossible to ignore. America’s farmers count on markets around the world, and we cannot afford more disruptions to trade.

Farm Bureau supports the goals of security and ensuring fair trade. That priority is what brought me to the North American European Union Agricultural Conference this week. This is a long-standing, biannual forum to bring together farm leaders from across the Atlantic to hear from one another and discuss opportunities and challenges facing agriculture.

We are wrapping up this year’s conference where we have discussed challenges facing farm production and food security, the importance of science-based standards in trade, innovation in agriculture, and sustainability practices. Throughout these discussions—and every time I meet with farmers from across our country and around the world—I am reminded of how much farmers everywhere share in common. We are committed to doing right by the land, strengthening our communities, and growing safe, healthy and affordable food for our neighbors near and far. Trade is critical to helping us achieve these goals, but farmers and rural communities often bear the brunt of tariffs and tariff retaliation.

U.S. farmers are seeing the impact of trade disruptions and tariffs already this year. Our agricultural trade deficit has increased, reaching $28.6 billion in the first half of 2025. As of June, the monthly deficit was up 14% from last year. It’s important to note that there was certainly ground to make up when it comes to trade, as we have been in an agricultural trade deficit for several years now without any new deals in nearly a decade.

Farm Bureau has long advocated for trade deals that open new markets and reduce barriers to trade, and we are grateful to see the many frameworks that have been announced by the administration. We are urging the administration to quickly bring those deals across the finish line and resolve remaining disputes with our key trade partners sooner rather than later.

The longer trade disputes continue, unfortunately, the more storm clouds gather over farm country. Farmers can face long-term effects because of the uncertainty and disruptions that tariffs bring. Many countries may decide to simply buy agricultural products elsewhere, and it can be difficult to recover those markets once they’re lost.

We are already seeing this shift with China. In 2024, China purchased about half of the soybeans grown in the U.S. This summer, since June, we have not shipped a single soybean to China. That doesn’t mean their demand has dropped. In fact, China has imported a record number of soybeans so far this year, but they have turned to Brazil and Argentina to avoid U.S. tariffs. Soybeans are not the only U.S. commodity losing market share in China, either. China is also cutting back on U.S. pork and cotton and has not purchased any U.S. corn, wheat or sorghum. Overall, USDA is projecting that U.S. agricultural exports to China will total only $17 billion this year. That is down 30% from 2024, and more than 50% from 2022.

What does all this mean for the economic storm over farm country? Many farm families are struggling to hold on and will have tough decisions to make this fall. Farm debt is expected to increase 20% from 2022, totaling almost $593 billion this year. It’s not just farm country facing this storm either. We must keep top of mind how farm exports boost our economy at home. Every $1 in U.S. agricultural exports generates more than $2 in economic activity across our nation’s economy. Agricultural exports support roughly $362 billion in total U.S. economic output and about 1.05 million full-time jobs—that includes nearly half a million on farms.

The U.S. has lost a staggering number of farms in recent years. According to the USDA Census of Agriculture, we lost 141,000 from 2017 to 2022, and we have lost another 20,000 farms since. This is an alarming trend that we must address.

Farmers and ranchers are no strangers to storms. We know from hard experience how circumstances beyond our control can wipe out weeks, months, even years of hard work. We also know how important it is to be prepared and to take every action to reduce the impact of the coming storm. In nature, we cannot stop a storm or force it to change course. All you can do is prepare and pray. But with an economic storm, we can heed the warnings and act.

Trade disruptions can be resolved. That’s why farmers and ranchers across the country are urging the administration to bring relief to farm country by locking in trade agreements and restoring our trade partnerships. Let’s head off the storm before it wreaks havoc.