E15: Fueling Energy Security and Farm Viability

Few markets link energy security and farm viability like ethanol. For more than two decades, it’s provided a reliable outlet for U.S. corn, strengthened domestic fuel supplies and saved consumers money at the pump. Global ethanol use has more than doubled since the early 2000s, underscoring its role in meeting fuel demand.

The U.S. is projected to produce 61.6 billion liters of ethanol and 18.6 billion liters of biodiesel and renewable diesel in 2025. But as gasoline demand declines with more efficient and electric vehicles, expanding E15 — gasoline blended with 15% ethanol — is critical to keeping markets strong for corn growers and lowering fuel costs for consumers. Year-round E15 sales could shape the future of ethanol demand and America’s energy independence.

Why E15 Matters

Ethanol uses about 5.6 billion bushels of corn annually — roughly one-third of U.S. production. Most gasoline today contains 10% ethanol (E10), but some states offer higher blends like E15 and E85. E15 burns cleaner than regular fuel, cutting tailpipe emissions by about 46% compared to straight gasoline, and offers higher octane for better engine performance.

Yet E15 growth is stalled by outdated rules. Each summer, federal volatility limits restrict E15 sales in many states, even though it performs as cleanly as E10. The EPA has issued temporary waivers for summer sales, including in 2025, but these must be renewed annually — creating uncertainty for retailers and slowing investment in E15 infrastructure.

The Stakes for Farmers

Without a permanent policy, ethanol demand faces headwinds. The Energy Information Administration projects gasoline use will decline over the next decade. If blend rates stay near 10.5%, domestic ethanol use could drop from 14.2 billion gallons in 2025 to 13.1 billion by 2035 — roughly 400 million fewer bushels of corn. That’s a big hit for rural economies.

Year-round E15 offers a clear solution. Even a 1% increase in the average blend rate would add 1.36 billion gallons of ethanol, equal to 486 million bushels of corn. Moving from E10 to E15 nationwide could mean 6.8 billion gallons of ethanol — about 2.4 billion bushels of corn each year.

E15 Policy and Global Context

Pending legislation — the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025 — would authorize year-round E15 sales nationwide, eliminating uncertainty and encouraging retailers to expand availability. Over 3,000 stations already offer E15, and all major automakers approve its use for new vehicles. Still, infrastructure investment is needed to make E15 widely accessible.

Consumers benefit, too. E15 typically costs 10–30 cents less per gallon, saving drivers up to 18% at the pump. It also reduces emissions and supports U.S. energy independence. Globally, the U.S. lags behind: Brazil mandates a 27–30% ethanol blend and India plans E20 by 2025. A permanent E15 standard would align the U.S. with international biofuel strategies while boosting domestic agriculture.

Bottom Line

Biofuels remain a cornerstone of U.S. agriculture, supporting crop prices, rural jobs and energy security. Authorizing year-round E15 sales is the simplest way to strengthen ethanol demand, potentially using an extra 2.4 billion bushels of corn annually while lowering fuel costs for consumers. For farmers, retailers and drivers alike, E15 is a win-win.

Faith Parum, Ph.D., is an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation. This column was adapted from a Market Intel piece published by AFBF.