Farm Income Forecast Exposes Concerning Trends

Every farmer knows that when you buy a piece of equipment, you need to take a close look under the hood. Something may look nice on the surface, but that rarely gives you a complete picture.

It’s the same story for the farm economy. Recently released farm income numbers look good at first glance, but on closer inspection, there is a lot of concerning information coming out of farm country.

Net farm income is forecasted to be $179.8 billion for 2025—an increase of $52 billion from 2024. That looks like a win. But much of the increase is driven by livestock markets and disaster aid. Years of drought took a toll on cattle herds, and now there is pressure from the New World screwworm. It’s caused the supply of beef to tighten while demand remains strong, so ranchers with cattle could do well. Poultry and hogs have rebounded, after suffering some of their worst losses in history during the past two years. These are positive developments for livestock farmers, but they represent less than half of farmers.

Assistance for losses in 2023 and 2024 accounts for $41 billion in income. On the surface, that inflates income for 2025, but in reality, this aid is making up for disasters from the previous two years. I can tell you there are many farmers who ended in the red those years.

The sobering reality is that many farmers are hurting. Talk to any farmer who grows row crops, and he or she will tell you they’re struggling with the lowest prices in almost 20 years. Corn, soybeans, wheat and hay are all expected to see billions of dollars in losses this year. If the forecast is accurate, farmers will see the lowest cash receipts for crop sales since 2007.

The cost of doing business isn’t getting any more affordable, either. Farm production expenses in 2025 are expected to be a whopping $467 billion, a number that has steadily climbed every year since 2018.

You don’t have to look far to see why farming has become so costly. High interest rates make it more difficult to secure and pay back loans. Wages for H-2A farmworkers have grown faster than rates for domestic workers. Trade disputes are threatening markets that farmers rely on to sell their products. Farm debt is up more than $1.5 billion from last year. On top of that, there’s the challenge of unpredictable weather.

The latest USDA Census of Agriculture painted a worrying picture of the farm economy landscape. We lost more than 140,000 farms from 2017 to 2022 as reported in the census. Since then, another 20,000 farms have gone out of business. That’s a loss of 76 farms a day.

Despite all the concerning data, farmers are by their very nature, optimistic. We go out every season and plant a crop, or raise animals, hoping for the best without knowing what the future will hold. We’ll continue to do that as long as we can, with the goal of surviving to pass the family business on to the next generation.

But, to have a successful farm, you need a healthy environment—in the fields and in the markets. Without progress on trade, a modernized labor system, and a new farm bill that accelerates research and other important programs, the rebound in net farm income will be difficult to maintain.